The Mandate
A 501(c)(3) nonprofit library system with two existing branches engaged Feasibility Study Consultant to prepare a third-party feasibility study supporting a USDA CF financing request for a project located in Monongalia County, West Virginia. Total project capitalization fell within the $3M-$5M band. The capital provider, a USDA Rural Development field office, required documentation consistent with current program review standards. The analytical question put to the team: Did service-area population growth and circulation trends support an 8,400-square-foot library expansion under USDA CF criteria.
Engagement Scope
- Primary market area defined as a 15-mile drive-time
- Comparable supply set of 6 properties
- Demand model framework: service-area circulation and program-attendance capacity analysis
- Financial projection horizon: 15 years
- Site inspection completed; operator interviews where applicable
- Primary data collection through field reconnaissance and third-party market data
Methodology Applied
Primary Market Area
The PMA was defined as a 15-mile drive-time from the subject site, calibrated to the demand catchment behavior typical of civic assets in West Virginia. The boundary captured the population, employment, and competitive supply base relevant to the subject's operating thesis.
Supply and Demand Reconciliation
The comparable supply set comprised 6 properties operating within the PMA or in directly substitutable submarkets. Demand was modeled using a service-area circulation and program-attendance capacity analysis approach over a 15 years horizon. The reconciliation tested whether incremental supply, including the subject, could be absorbed within the projection window without compromising stabilized occupancy assumptions.
Capture Rate Calibration
The subject's capture rate was calibrated against the absorption capacity of the PMA. The analysis concluded that PMA absorption capacity exceeded subject build-out by a factor of 1.6 across the projection window, with a stabilized capture rate of n/a.
Exhibit 1: Comparable Supply Set, West Virginia PMA
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 2: Demand Projection Summary, 15 years Horizon
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 3: Subject Capture Rate vs. PMA Absorption Capacity
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Analytical Conclusions
- Service-area circulation grew at a 5.2% trailing CAGR with documented program-attendance constraints.
- Local-government operating-support pledge of $324,000 annually supported the operating model.
- Comparable community library expansions delivered 38% to 52% post-expansion attendance lifts.
- USDA Community Facilities essential community facility criteria satisfied.
Deliverable
The delivered report ran 104 pages with 23 exhibits distributed across nine analytical sections, plus appendices documenting comparable supply data, demographic inputs, and financial projection assumptions. The document was prepared to the documentation standards of the USDA Rural Development field office. The corresponding USDA CF review framework guided exhibit selection and supporting documentation.