Feasible Subject to Conditions: New Travel Center at Interstate 10 Exit 822, Winnie, Texas

Study at a Glance

Determination

The project is feasible subject to the conditions precedent listed at the end of this study. At a guaranteed loan of $10,920,000 with annual debt service of $1,096,000, coverage under the Part 5001 definition reaches 1.20x in the third year and 1.38x by the fifth, on a diesel margin deliberately underwritten at 26 cents per gallon, roughly 14 cents below the 2025 industry average. Coverage survives the documented downside of the public truck stop operators, 17.5 cents, at 0.92x for a single stress year, and the break-even margin is 20 cents. The first operating year does not cover debt service and is carried by a $430,000 interest and operating reserve funded at closing, with principal and interest commencing at the projected break-even month. The determination is conditioned above all on resolving the floodplain: a fill and elevation plan with a letter of map revision, flood insurance, and the cost certainty that follows.

Scope and Basis

This is a model feasibility study prepared for publication. It demonstrates, on a real and currently listed property, the analysis 7 CFR Part 5001 requires when a guaranteed loan over $1,000,000 funds a new business, organized around the five components in Appendix A to Subpart D. It was prepared without a site inspection, without broker or sponsor interviews, and without an engagement from any party, and it is not to be relied on for any transaction. Verified facts are presented as findings. Items that could not be verified in research are carried as stated assumptions and repeated in the conditions: the parcel identifier and tax account, the exact flood zone designation and base flood elevation, current competitor fuel prices, the segment traffic count, and all construction costs, which in this file are an analytical estimate pending contractor bids. Chambers County is unincorporated at this location and has no zoning, which removes one approval risk and shifts the review to access, drainage and state fuel regulation. Our USDA feasibility study consultant page describes the engagement-grade version of this work and the standard the Agency applies to its author; the document checklist lists what the borrower assembles.

Why This File Requires an Independent Study

A new travel center is a new business under 7 CFR 5001.3, and the loan exceeds $1,000,000, so 7 CFR 5001.306(a)(3)(i) makes an independent feasibility study acceptable to the Agency mandatory, with scope determined by the Agency. Rural eligibility is unambiguous: Winnie is a census-designated place of 3,162 people classified 100% rural in the 2020 Census, and Chambers County's growth to roughly 57,600 does not change the Exit 822 area's status; the dated eligibility map print, Business Programs layer, is still a required exhibit and a condition. The borrower will also certify that credit is not available elsewhere on reasonable terms, which for a first-generation truck stop operator building in a floodplain is rarely a difficult certification to support.

Project Business Plan

The Project will operate as an independent travel center on the ±10.03-acre hard corner at the southeast quadrant of Interstate 10 Exit 822 and FM 1410. The program comprises a 7,200 square foot convenience store with a branded quick-service food counter and deli, six high-speed diesel lanes with diesel exhaust fluid at the pump under a separate truck canopy, eight gasoline fueling positions under an auto canopy, four private showers, laundry, a certified truck scale, and 68 marked truck parking spaces, with the finished grade raised above the base flood elevation by engineered fill. Fuel storage is four 25,000-gallon double-wall fiberglass underground tanks. The facility operates 24 hours with approximately 34 full-time equivalents across four shifts. Fuel supply will run under a branded or unbranded supply agreement with terms aligned to the loan, a condition of this study. The revenue design follows the industry's economics: fuel brings traffic, and inside sales and foodservice carry the margin, with prepared food the highest-margin category in the store.

Marketing will anchor on listing in the major fuel card networks and trucker apps, fleet card acceptance, the scale and shower amenity set that the nearby independents only partially offer, and the parking shortage itself, which federal survey work ranks among the worst on this corridor.

Amenities:

• 68 truck parking spaces, lit and striped, free parking as base case
• Six diesel lanes with diesel exhaust fluid; eight gasoline positions
• 7,200 sq ft store with quick-service food counter, deli and fresh program
• Four showers, laundry, drivers' lounge
• Certified truck scale
• Standby generator for hurricane-season continuity

Site, Floodplain, Utilities and Taxes

The site is a ±10.03-acre hard corner at Exit 822, asking $1,600,000, approximately $3.66 per square foot. The broker discloses location in a FEMA 100-year floodplain, and this study treats that disclosure as controlling until a flood determination states the zone and base flood elevation. The cost estimate therefore carries $1,900,000 of fill, elevation and drainage inside hard costs, and the conditions require an engineered fill plan, a letter of map revision based on fill or equivalent, and flood insurance thereafter; this coastal plain flooded in Hurricane Harvey, and the study says so. The location is unincorporated Chambers County, which has no zoning; development review runs through county development, drainage district, TxDOT access permitting on FM 1410, and the state's fuel storage regime. Water and wastewater service at the corner is unverified; the model assumes a water district connection and an on-site treatment solution, and will-serve or permit evidence is a condition. The combined property tax rate is approximately $1.77 per $100 of value; the model carries $225,000 per year on an assessed basis near $12,700,000, a stated assumption pending the appraisal district's treatment. The subject parcel is part of a larger tract at the interchange, and the balance of that acreage could host a second entrant; the risk section treats that directly.

Market Area and Demand

The demand case is corridor arithmetic. Interstate 10 between Houston's east side and Beaumont is one of the nation's principal freight corridors, and the current segment count is an open verification item from TxDOT's statewide traffic map rather than a number this study will assume. What is verified is the supply gap: the nearest chain truck stop eastbound is Love's #696 at Exit 843 in Beaumont, 21 miles away with 115 truck spaces, and the nearest westbound cluster is at Exit 789 in Baytown, 33 miles away, where Love's #401 offers 160 spaces alongside a TA and a Flying J. Between them, a 54-mile stretch holds only small independents at Exits 812, 819 and 829 with roughly 40 to 50 spaces combined, and the public rest areas at mile markers 814 and 815, which offer parking but no fuel, food or showers. Federal Jason's Law survey work found 98% of drivers reporting difficulty finding safe parking, ranked Interstate 10 among the five worst shortage corridors, and a $6.8 million federal award to TxDOT specifically funds Interstate 10 parking projects. Hours-of-service rules convert that shortage into demand at a facility placed where limits expire between Houston and Beaumont. The motorist channel is evidenced at scale: nearly 3 million annual visitors are reported at the Buc-ee's 25 miles west, a format that sells no diesel and offers no truck parking, and therefore feeds rather than competes for the subject's gasoline and foodservice volume. Chambers County grew 23.8% from 2020 to 2025, among the faster county growth rates in Texas.

Competitive Supply

The competitive census below reflects verified attributes; posted fuel prices for every competitor must be captured from brand sources or field photographs on a single stated date and are an open item, as are assessor acreage and taxes for each facility.

Competitor Number 1 Love's Travel Stop #696 This full-service chain travel center is located at 7495 Smith Road, Beaumont, Texas, at Exit 843, approximately 21 miles east of the subject. It offers 115 truck parking spaces, 10 diesel lanes with diesel exhaust fluid, seven showers, certified scales, tire service and three quick-service food brands. Real estate taxes: open verification item.

Competitor Number 2 Love's Travel Stop #401 This full-service chain travel center is located at 1703 Interstate 10, Baytown, Texas, at Exit 789, approximately 33 miles west of the subject. It offers 160 truck parking spaces, 11 diesel lanes, nine showers, scales and quick-service food, and anchors a cluster that includes TA Baytown #0017, with Shell diesel and six truck service bays, and Flying J #725, with three service bays. Real estate taxes: open verification item.

Competitor Number 3 JP Truck Stop This independent truck stop is located at 45950 Interstate 10, Winnie, Texas, at Exit 829, approximately 7 miles east of the subject. It offers an estimated 15 to 20 truck spaces, four to six fuel lanes, two showers and a certified scale, with a deli. Real estate taxes: open verification item.

Competitor Number 4 Country Boys Country Store This independent facility is located at 25777 Interstate 10, Hankamer, Texas, at Exit 812, approximately 10 miles west of the subject. It offers an estimated 20 to 25 truck spaces, four fuel lanes, showers, laundry, a small motel and branded fried chicken. Real estate taxes: open verification item.

Partially competitive supply includes Stuckey's at Exit 819, the Exit 829 cluster of Bingo Truck Stop, Speedy Stop with McDonald's and the Crossroads Exxon, the smaller Baytown-side plazas at Exits 789 to 797, and Buc-ee's Baytown, which competes only in the motorist channel. No planned or under-construction travel center was identified within 30 miles; the nearest announced project is in Lafayette, Louisiana, outside the trade area.

Economics, Pricing and the Margin Question

This is the section on which the file stands or falls, because 2026 broke the shortcut of projecting from trailing margins. Gulf Coast regular gasoline stood at $3.92 in late September 2026, $1.25 above a year earlier, with regional diesel near $6.18, after a spring price shock. Retail fuel margins move inversely to wholesale cost in the short run, card fees scale with the pump price, and the small spot-market carriers who are the core parking customer are the most exposed. The documented record frames the range: the national convenience industry averaged more than 40 cents per gallon in 2025, large public operators ran from 28 to 43 cents, cardlock fleet diesel earned 49 cents at one public company, and the last public truck stop filings show diesel margin swinging from 29.8 cents to 17.5 cents in a single quarter. A consultant who projects 40 cents because last year delivered it has written a marketing document. This study underwrites diesel at 26 cents and gasoline at 30 cents, holds inside gross margin at 31% on a foodservice-weighted mix in line with industry shares, prices showers, scale and parking-adjacent services as a minor line with paid parking excluded from the base case, and then proves the determination at the downside.

Stabilized diesel volume of 3.6 million gallons is approximately 145 trucks fueling per day at an average 68-gallon fill, a capture the gap analysis supports and the engagement-grade study tests against the verified segment count. Years four and five add one cent of margin as the facility matures in the card networks. First-year cash flow is presented monthly in the engagement-grade file, with principal and interest from the projected break-even month.

Project Cost Estimate and Loan Assumptions

No current primary construction cost benchmark exists for a facility of this program, so every hard and equipment line is an analytical estimate to be replaced by at least two contractor bids, named as such here and in the conditions; the floodplain fill is the line with the widest uncertainty. Loan assumptions: guaranteed loan $10,920,000 at 75% of cost; borrower equity $3,640,000 at 25%; interest rate 8.00% fixed; blended amortization 20 years across real estate and equipment lives; annual debt service $1,096,000.

B&I Program Compliance

The loan exceeds $5 million, so the FY2026 guarantee is 80%, the guarantee fee is 3.0% of the guaranteed portion ($262,000), and the 0.55% annual retention fee, approximately $48,000 in year one, is carried in operating expenses. Under 7 CFR 5001.105(d) a new business requires 20% tangible balance sheet equity, or 25% where the guarantee is issued before construction completion; the sponsor's 25% satisfies either path. Projections run through more than two years of stabilized operations with every assumption stated, per 7 CFR 5001.303(b)(4). The environmental review proceeds under departmental procedures at 7 CFR Part 1b following the April 2026 removal of 7 CFR Part 1970, and a fuel facility on fill in a floodplain should expect floodplain and water-resource scrutiny within that review rather than a categorical pass. Texas adds its own gate: underground storage tank owners at this volume must demonstrate financial assurance of at least $1,000,000 per occurrence, the state will not issue the annual fuel delivery certificate until that assurance is verified, and operator training certificates accompany registration. Those certificates are conditions precedent, because without them the facility cannot legally receive fuel.

Operating Expenses and the Part 5001 Coverage Test

Operating expenses at stabilization total $1,845,000: labor for 24-hour operation at $1,040,000, utilities at $175,000, insurance including flood coverage at $145,000, real estate taxes carried at $225,000, and maintenance, supplies, card-program and general costs at $260,000, inclusive of the retention fee. Store operating costs industry-wide have risen 23% since 2021, and the model's labor line reflects that, not pre-2022 benchmarks. USDA then applies its own coverage arithmetic: under 7 CFR 5001.3, cash flow available for debt service is EBITDA less reasonably expected replacement capital expenditures. For a travel center that deduction is dispenser, canopy and store-cycle capital, modeled at $120,000 rising to $155,000 per year. The coverage below is the Part 5001 number, not the looser EBITDA ratio.

Break-Even and Sensitivity

The break-even diesel margin at stabilized volumes is 20 cents per gallon, half the 2025 industry average and 2.5 cents above the worst documented public-company quarter. The stress battery on the stabilized year: diesel margin at the 17.5-cent downside produces 0.92x, survivable for a stress year against the reserve but not a basis for the loan, which is why the base case sits at 26; diesel volume down 15% at base margin produces 1.07x; inside sales down 10% produces 1.05x; the combined moderate downside, 22-cent diesel and inside sales down 5%, produces 1.02x. Coverage holds above 1.0x in every single-variable stress except the full margin collapse, and the inside business, not the fuel island, is what holds it there, which matches the industry's own profit structure.

Risk Factors

Fuel margin volatility in a high-price year, treated above as the central risk; the floodplain, with its cost, insurance and schedule consequences; a second entrant on the remaining acreage of the same interchange tract, which the engagement-grade study models as an explicit scenario; hurricane exposure on the upper Texas coast; the unverified segment traffic count; construction cost uncertainty pending bids; and single-operator dependence typical of first-generation facilities, mitigated by the management covenants the lender will carry into the loan agreement.

Conditions and Limitations

Conditions precedent: the dated USDA eligibility map determination, Business Programs layer; flood zone determination with base flood elevation, an engineered fill and drainage plan, a letter of map revision based on fill or equivalent, and flood insurance; parcel, tax account and assessed-value verification from the appraisal district; at least two contractor bids replacing the modeled costs; TxDOT access permit on FM 1410; water and wastewater will-serve or on-site treatment permits; TCEQ underground storage tank registration, $1,000,000 per occurrence financial assurance, the fuel delivery certificate and operator training certificates; a fuel supply agreement with term and pricing aligned to the loan; a current segment traffic count; competitor fuel price capture on a single stated date; completion of the environmental review under 7 CFR Part 1b; the interest and operating reserve funded at closing; and the lender's written evaluation of this study in its credit evaluation under 7 CFR 5001.202. The study is not an appraisal and contains no opinion of value.

What the Lender Received

The engagement-grade version of this file delivers the five Appendix A components, a margin analysis documented to public filings and industry data rather than to the sponsor's hopes, monthly first-year cash flow with principal and interest from the break-even month, coverage under the Part 5001 definition with the replacement capital deduction shown, the second-entrant scenario, the full conditions list formatted against the Conditional Commitment, and a signed certification of independence under 7 CFR 5001.208. The margin discipline is the point: a study that underwrites 2025's fuel margins in 2026 fails the reviewer's first question. For the standard applied to the consultant, see our USDA feasibility study consultant page; for the rules, see USDA loan feasibility study requirements.

Sources

1. 7 CFR Part 5001, sections 5001.3, 5001.105, 5001.202, 5001.208, 5001.303, 5001.306, and Appendix A to Subpart D, Electronic Code of Federal Regulations, current as of October 2, 2026
2. OneRD Guarantee Fee Rates for Fiscal Year 2026, 91 FR 11272, Federal Register, March 9, 2026
3. USDA Rural Development, letter to all OneRD lenders on underwriting expectations, February 2026
4. Commercial listing, ±10.03 acres, Interstate 10 at FM 1410, Winnie, Texas, accessed October 2026
5. U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census, Winnie CDP, and county population estimates, Chambers County, Texas, 2025
6. Federal Highway Administration, Jason's Law Truck Parking Survey results and executive summary
7. Federal Highway Administration, National Coalition on Truck Parking summary, December 1, 2020, Interstate 10 corridor award to TxDOT
8. Love's Travel Stops location pages, stores #696 and #401, accessed 2026
9. TravelCenters of America, TA Baytown #0017 location page, accessed 2026
10. Truck stop directory listings for JP Truck Stop, Country Boys Country Store, Stuckey's, Bingo Truck Stop and Baytown-area facilities, accessed 2026
11. NACS State of the Industry release, April 15, 2026, and NACS Magazine fuel margin reporting, June 2026
12. NACS Magazine, prepared food category data, May 2025
13. TravelCenters of America, Form 10-K and Form 10-Q extracts, 2022 to 2023 fuel volumes and margins
14. ARKO Corp., Form 10-K, 2025, cardlock fuel margins
15. Paytronix summary of public convenience operator fuel margins, 2025
16. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, week of September 28, 2026, and Gulf Coast series
17. 30 Texas Administrative Code sections 37.815 and 37.835, underground storage tank financial assurance
18. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, RG-475i and petroleum storage tank registration requirements
19. Buc-ee's press materials and regional press reports on Baytown visitation and the Lafayette project, 2026
20. USDA Rural Development eligibility map, Business Programs layer, method of determination