The Mandate
A regional senior-living operator with 1,400 licensed beds across the Southeast engaged Feasibility Study Consultant to prepare a third-party feasibility study supporting a Conventional financing request for a project located in Fulton County, Georgia. Total project capitalization fell within the $25M-$50M band. The capital provider, a regional bank with senior-housing program, required documentation consistent with current program review standards. The analytical question put to the team: Did Fulton County 75-plus household density and Alzheimer's prevalence support a 60-bed memory care lease-up to 92% within 18 months.
Engagement Scope
- Primary market area defined as a 10-mile drive-time
- Comparable supply set of 14 properties
- Demand model framework: 75-plus household and dementia prevalence build-up
- Financial projection horizon: 10 years
- Site inspection completed; operator interviews where applicable
- Primary data collection through field reconnaissance and third-party market data
Methodology Applied
Primary Market Area
The PMA was defined as a 10-mile drive-time from the subject site, calibrated to the demand catchment behavior typical of senior living assets in Georgia. The boundary captured the population, employment, and competitive supply base relevant to the subject's operating thesis.
Supply and Demand Reconciliation
The comparable supply set comprised 14 properties operating within the PMA or in directly substitutable submarkets. Demand was modeled using a 75-plus household and dementia prevalence build-up approach over a 10 years horizon. The reconciliation tested whether incremental supply, including the subject, could be absorbed within the projection window without compromising stabilized occupancy assumptions.
Capture Rate Calibration
The subject's capture rate was calibrated against the absorption capacity of the PMA. The analysis concluded that PMA absorption capacity exceeded subject build-out by a factor of 2.2 across the projection window, with a stabilized capture rate of 3.9%.
Exhibit 1: Comparable Supply Set, Georgia PMA
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 2: Demand Projection Summary, 10 years Horizon
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 3: Subject Capture Rate vs. PMA Absorption Capacity
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Analytical Conclusions
- Drive-time PMA contained 14,200 households age 75-plus with an estimated 1,920 dementia-affected residents.
- Comparable memory care properties operated at 89% to 94% occupancy with $7,800 to $9,400 monthly private-pay rates.
- Subject achieved 17-month lease-up to 91% occupancy with private-pay payor mix of 96%.
- Stabilized debt yield of 9.2% supported the conventional financing structure.
Deliverable
The delivered report ran 164 pages with 39 exhibits distributed across nine analytical sections, plus appendices documenting comparable supply data, demographic inputs, and financial projection assumptions. The document was prepared to the documentation standards of the regional bank with senior-housing program. The corresponding Conventional review framework guided exhibit selection and supporting documentation.