The Mandate
A family-owned petroleum marketer expanding from two existing rural locations engaged Feasibility Study Consultant to prepare a third-party feasibility study supporting a USDA B&I financing request for a project located in Lincoln County, Nebraska. Total project capitalization fell within the $10M-$25M band. The capital provider, a USDA Rural Development field office, required documentation consistent with current program review standards. The analytical question put to the team: Did I-80 commercial truck traffic and rural North Platte retail demand support a $14M ground-up truck stop and convenience retail facility.
Engagement Scope
- Primary market area defined as a 25-mile radius
- Comparable supply set of 7 properties
- Demand model framework: interstate truck-traffic capture and rural retail trade-area build
- Financial projection horizon: 10 years
- Site inspection completed; operator interviews where applicable
- Primary data collection through field reconnaissance and third-party market data
Methodology Applied
Primary Market Area
The PMA was defined as a 25-mile radius from the subject site, calibrated to the demand catchment behavior typical of gas station assets in Nebraska. The boundary captured the population, employment, and competitive supply base relevant to the subject's operating thesis.
Supply and Demand Reconciliation
The comparable supply set comprised 7 properties operating within the PMA or in directly substitutable submarkets. Demand was modeled using a interstate truck-traffic capture and rural retail trade-area build approach over a 10 years horizon. The reconciliation tested whether incremental supply, including the subject, could be absorbed within the projection window without compromising stabilized occupancy assumptions.
Capture Rate Calibration
The subject's capture rate was calibrated against the absorption capacity of the PMA. The analysis concluded that PMA absorption capacity exceeded subject build-out by a factor of 2 across the projection window, with a stabilized capture rate of 4.2%.
Exhibit 1: Comparable Supply Set, Nebraska PMA
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 2: Demand Projection Summary, 10 years Horizon
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 3: Subject Capture Rate vs. PMA Absorption Capacity
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Analytical Conclusions
- I-80 truck AADT at the subject interchange recorded 14,800 daily commercial vehicles.
- Comparable Class-8 capable truck stops cleared $9.2M to $12.6M annual fuel revenue.
- Inside-sales demand from a 25-mile rural trade area supported $3.8M in projected convenience and food-service revenue.
- USDA B&I population and tangible-balance-sheet equity tests confirmed at the lender level.
Deliverable
The delivered report ran 146 pages with 35 exhibits distributed across nine analytical sections, plus appendices documenting comparable supply data, demographic inputs, and financial projection assumptions. The document was prepared to the documentation standards of the USDA Rural Development field office. The corresponding USDA B&I review framework guided exhibit selection and supporting documentation.