I-80 Truck Stop and Convenience Store in Lincoln County, Nebraska: A USDA B&I Model Study

Model study: an illustrative feasibility analysis built on public data for Lincoln County, Nebraska; not a client engagement.

Project summary

The credit question

A lender is not asking whether trucks pass the site; state counts say about 8,300 do every day [2]. It is asking whether a new, independent operator can take enough diesel gallons from established travel centers, at a margin that holds, to carry about $1.05 million of annual debt service on improvements with little value outside the fuel business. That question has five parts.

First, volume. Diesel is sold to drivers whose employers steer them to networks with negotiated prices. The lender must believe the project's modelled 15.5% share of county truck fueling, which is 70% of its fair share on parking capacity.

Second, margin. Retail fuel margins are cents per gallon on a commodity whose Midwest retail price rose $2.31 per gallon in the year to November 9, 2026 [3]. The model uses 30 cents per gallon on diesel in the opening year. The break-even in Year 3 is 25.7 cents. That cushion of 17.6% is the thinnest number in the file, and the lender should treat it that way.

Third, ramp. Costs run near full level from the first day while sales build over two years, so the business does not cover debt service until Year 3. The cash to bridge that gap must sit in the project at closing.

Fourth, program fit. B&I is open only to projects in rural areas, which for this program means outside any city of more than 50,000 people and outside the urbanized area next to such a city [1]. North Platte, the county's only city, had a 2020 population base of 23,402 in the Census Bureau's estimates [4], far below that line. B&I also sets a minimum equity for new businesses and requires an independent feasibility study for a loan of this size [1].

Fifth, collateral. Paving, canopies and tanks are worth what a fuel operator will pay for them. On lender-style discounts the collateral covers about two-thirds of the loan, and B&I requires that collateral secure the entire guaranteed loan [1], so guarantees matter more here than in a typical real estate loan.

Location and county economy

Lincoln County sits in west-central Nebraska, where I-80 follows the Platte River valley. North Platte is the county seat. The economy rests on the interstate, the railroad and agriculture.

Table: Lincoln County economic indicators

Population. The county had an estimated 33,303 residents in July 2025, down from 34,534 in July 2020, a decline of 3.6% over five years [5]. The 2025 estimate was the first year-on-year increase in that span, by 18 people. For a truck stop this is a modest concern: local residents supply perhaps a fifth of inside sales in this model, and diesel depends on through traffic. The project gets no credit for local growth.

Income. The Census Bureau's model-based estimate puts 2024 median household income at $69,128, about 90% of the Nebraska median of $76,578 [6]. Food service aimed partly at local trade should be priced for a market below the state median.

Employment. Staffing is a real cost for a store hiring 24 full-time equivalents plus a manager. Nebraska's minimum wage reached $15 per hour on January 1, 2026, and from 2027 it rises each year with the cost of living [8]. The model's $17.00 average wage adds a night-shift premium to that floor.

Sector mix. By place of work, private employers in the county had 11,421 employees in 2023. Health care and social assistance employed 2,738, retail trade 1,975, accommodation and food services 1,629 and transportation and warehousing 1,055, and the county had 30 gasoline stations with 308 employees [7]. Those 30 stations are the local competition for car fuel and inside sales; the truck competition sits at the interstate interchanges. The model takes no credit for rail or other local industry beyond the local customer line.

Off-corridor demand. Cattle, farm and US-83 traffic add trucks that do not show up in the I-80 counts. The model treats them as an assumed 8% uplift on the interstate truck market.

Market analysis

Demand drivers: I-80 traffic and truck share

NDOT publishes annual average daily traffic (AADT) and truck counts for each state highway segment [2]. Five I-80 segments lie wholly inside Lincoln County; the table shows their mean.

Table: I-80 traffic in Lincoln County

Mean of the five NDOT I-80 segments wholly inside the county, computed by this study from the NDOT AADT layer [2].

Total traffic grew 0.88% a year from 2016 to 2025 and trucks 1.54% a year, so the truck share rose from 42.4% to 44.9%. Across all seven county segments in 2025, AADT ranged only from 17,838 to 18,579 and trucks from 8,235 to 8,310 [2]: this is through traffic, not traffic the county generates. That is the right demand for a truck stop, because a driver passing North Platte late in a driving day needs fuel, food and parking whatever the local economy does.

Hours-of-service rules turn traffic into stops. A property-carrying driver may drive up to 11 hours within a 14-hour window after 10 consecutive hours off duty, with a 30-minute break after 8 hours of driving [9]. Trucks leaving Omaha or Denver in the morning reach west-central Nebraska when drivers stop to fuel, eat or rest.

Truck parking demand

FHWA's Jason's Law survey named I-80 among the five corridors drivers cited for parking shortages [10]. The 2019 update counted about 313,000 spaces nationally, 40,000 of them public, and 98% of drivers reported problems finding safe parking [11].

A study funded by NDOT and completed in January 2026 identified 21 public and 49 private truck parking facilities within a mile of I-80 in Nebraska. Using imagery from 2010 to 2022 and 2022 truck GPS data, it found higher occupancy at private facilities than public ones, with several private facilities at 100% occupancy or higher, and it found trucks parking at facility entrances, ramps, shoulders and off-road sites during bad weather [12]. The facility-level results sit in the full report, which this model study did not use.

The study found no significant relationship between truck-involved crashes and parking shortages [12], which weakens a safety case for public money but not the commercial point: drivers buy fuel and food where they park.

A simple check: 8,274 trucks a day [2], about 40 county miles and a 550-mile driving day (both assumptions) imply roughly 600 trucks needing a 10-hour rest in the county each night. FHWA's national ratio of 83 spaces per 100,000 daily truck miles [11] would imply about 275 spaces for the county's I-80 truck miles. Whether the county's interchanges have more or fewer designated spaces than that, and how full they run at night and in storms, is a question for a current inventory. A lender should read parking as a driver of fuel share, not a stand-alone revenue line. The model charges for only 30 reservable spaces, consistent with the survey finding that 75% of truck stop operators do not charge for parking [11].

Existing supply and pipeline

A current inventory of competing truck parking is the first thing the feasibility study must supply. NDOT's 2026 study compiled one for every facility within a mile of I-80 [12], but its facility tables sit in the full report, which this model study did not use. The model therefore carries competing supply as an assumption.

Table: Competitive truck parking supply used in the model

The exit 179 (Newberry) interchange is the center of the market. Love's own page for store #390 at exit 179 lists 80 truck parking spaces, eight DEF lanes, seven showers, CAT scales, a Subway and a McDonald's [13]. NDOT's public meeting materials for its planned million widening of Link 56G between the Newberry interchange and US-30 tie the area's truck traffic to I-80 and to three truck stops located there [14], and construction is tentatively scheduled from spring 2029 to fall 2030 [15].

The pipeline matters as much as current supply. The model adds a 150-space competitor at exit 179 and counts it as open from the project's first year. That is the conservative choice: it lowers the project's fair share from 28.5% to 22.2%. A lender should expect a price response from the exit 179 operators; the 70% penetration factor is meant to price that in.

Demand method: diesel fair share

The model sizes the county truck-diesel market from NDOT counts, then gives the project a parking-capacity share, discounted for a new independent brand.

Table: Diesel demand method (Year 3, stabilized)

The key assumption is that 11% of passing trucks fuel in the county. About 40 county miles of a 500-mile to 600-mile driving day would give 7% to 8% on an even spread; North Platte's role as a regional hub is the judgment that raises it. The figure is tested under Sensitivity and stress tests.

The result, 7.3 million gallons of diesel a year or about 20,000 gallons a day at stabilization, implies the competing sites average about 75,700 gallons per truck space a year against the project's 48,800. A new site taking less per space than incumbents is the right shape for an independent without a national fleet network.

Gasoline and inside sales

Table: Gasoline and inside-sales build (Year 3)

Gasoline is secondary: 18% of an estimated interstate car-fueling market plus 400,000 local gallons gives 861,983 gallons in Year 3. Inside sales are built from customer counts. The stabilized figure, $2,980,814, is a judgment for a 24-hour site with 150 spaces and food service, and the break-even table shows it has the widest cushion of the three main drivers. Food service is modelled at 36% of inside sales because food is the reason many travelers and parked drivers come in.

Forecast

Fuel volume ramps at 70%, 90% and 100% of stabilized levels in Years 1 to 3, then grows 1.0% a year, below the 1.54% truck growth since 2016. Fuel margins grow 2% a year, inside prices 2.5% and labor 3.5%, because the state minimum wage rises with the cost of living from 2027 [8].

Site and technical

Site requirements. The project needs about 16 acres on a frontage road at an I-80 interchange, separate truck and car entrances, pull-through circulation for 150 stalls, and mainline visibility for a high-rise sign. Exit 179 already carries three truck stops [14] and faces road work tentatively scheduled from spring 2029 to fall 2030 [15], so a less congested interchange may trade some volume for easier access. The USDA eligibility map controls the rural test for the parcel.

Zoning and permits. A city site would need highway commercial zoning or conditional use approval for fuel, truck parking and food service; a county site follows county zoning. Approval is a closing condition. Other approvals include registration and inspection of the underground tanks by the State Fire Marshal [16]; construction stormwater coverage under the NDEE general permit, with a notice of intent at least seven days before construction on sites disturbing one acre or more [17]; NDOT access review; and building and food permits.

Fuel system. New tanks and piping must be secondarily contained with interstitial monitoring, have spill and overfill prevention, and new dispenser systems need under-dispenser containment [18]. The model provides two 30,000-gallon diesel tanks, a 20,000-gallon gasoline tank and a 12,000-gallon split tank, double-wall fiberglass with automatic gauging, installed by a contractor qualified under State Fire Marshal rules.

Construction approach. A design-build contract with a guaranteed maximum price fits this asset, whose largest costs are fuel islands and heavy-duty paving. The 7% contingency is adequate only after geotechnical and civil design are complete.

Schedule. Environmental review and permitting take an assumed nine months of 2027. B&I requires the borrower and lender to consider environmental impacts at the earliest planning stages [1], and the model signs no construction contract until the Agency's review is complete. Twelve months of construction put opening in late 2028, the start of pro forma Year 1.

Development budget and sources and uses

Every cost line is an assumption, not a bid or appraisal; financing lines are computed from the loan.

Table: Development budget

Table: Sources and uses

The FY2026 Rural Development notice sets a 3.0% fee, an 80% guarantee and a 0.55% annual retention fee for B&I loans of $5 million to $25 million [19]; the fee is the loan times the guaranteed share times the rate, $265,754. B&I loan funds may pay the guarantee fee, professional fees, interest before the first principal payment, and start-up working capital in the form of a permanent working capital term loan [1], so all of these are financed in the budget.

The $900,000 ramp reserve is the budget's most important credit line, sized to cover the Year 1 and Year 2 shortfall after debt service, $605,138 combined, with $294,862 left at the end of Year 2.

Revenue build and operating expenses

Table: Revenue build, Years 1 to 5

At assumed prices of $4.49 for diesel and $3.56 for gasoline, which were EIA's October 2026 forecasts for 2027 and which its November outlook raised to $5.03 and $3.73 [20], the project sells $41.9 million in Year 3 but earns $4.42 million of gross profit: 63% from fuel, 28% inside and 8% from services.

The margin inputs are assumptions. EIA's breakdown of the August 2026 retail price assigns 11% of the $5.46 diesel gallon and 13% of the $4.06 gasoline gallon to distribution and marketing [3], about 60 cents and 53 cents a gallon. The model's 30 cents on diesel and 40 cents on gasoline in Year 1 have to come out of that slice, and truck stop diesel sits lower than gasoline because fleets negotiate discounts. Because margins are per gallon, the price level matters mainly through card fees. Inside margins of 34% on merchandise and 57% on food are also assumptions.

Table: Operating expenses, Year 3 (stabilized)

Operating expenses consume 65.3% of gross profit in Year 3. Labor is the largest line at 27.6%. Card fees are second at 12.0%, and they rise with the price of each gallon. Taxes sit in the price, not the margin: 24.4 cents federal on diesel [21] and 31.8 cents Nebraska motor fuel tax plus a 0.6-cent release fee on diesel [22]. The model charges 5 cents per gallon on fleet diesel, 8 cents on gasoline and 2.2% on inside sales. The minimum wage's cost-of-living indexing from 2027 [8] supports faster growth for labor than revenue.

10-year pro forma

Table: 10-year pro forma ($000)

NOI rises from $400,823 in Year 1 to $1,806,654 in Year 10. The two ramp years produce negative cash after debt service of $596,062 and $9,076. From Year 3, cash after debt service runs from $389,806 to $643,910 a year. Ten-year cash after debt service of $3,507,123 is less than the equity, so the equity case depends on the exit.

Debt structure under the program

Table: B&I loan terms

Guarantee and size. At $11,073,072 the loan falls in the $5 million to $25 million band, so the FY2026 notice sets an 80% guarantee and a 3.0% fee [19]. The program ceiling for one borrower is $25 million [1], and the regulation caps the guarantee at 90% of loss, with the Agency setting the actual percentage each year [1]. A loan obligated in FY2027 will use the next notice, which had not been published as of November 11, 2026 [24].

Rate. B&I rates are negotiated between lender and borrower, may be fixed or variable, and a variable rate may adjust no more often than quarterly [1]. The model assumes 7.75% fixed, against a prime rate of 7.00% and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.88% on November 9, 2026 [23].

Term and repayment. The term may not exceed 40 years or the useful life of the collateral, the guaranteed and unguaranteed portions must amortize over the same term, balloon payments are generally not allowed, and the first full principal and interest payment must start within three years of the note date [1]. Two interest-only years put the first amortizing payment at month 25 and the term at 27 years. A shorter amortization on fuel equipment would raise debt service and should be tested.

Equity. A new business needs 20% balance sheet equity (or debt to equity of 4 to 1 or less) or an investment of 25% of eligible costs; if the guarantee is issued before construction is complete, 25% balance sheet equity or 3 to 1, or 25% of costs [1]. Equity must be cash or earning assets, and the Agency may raise it for riskier loans [1]. The 30% cash equity clears both tests.

Fees. Lender fees must be reasonable, routine and customary [1]; the model uses 1.0%. The lender pays the retention fee and may pass it on to the borrower [1], so the model includes it in debt service at the FY2026 rate [19].

Collateral.

Table: Collateral at completion (cost basis, lender-style discounts)

Discounted collateral of $7,342,150 covers 0.66 times the loan; no reasonable set of discounts closes the gap. B&I requires all collateral to secure the entire guaranteed loan and leaves the discounting to sound lender practice [1], and it requires guarantees from anyone owning 20% or more of the borrower [1]. The model therefore assumes personal guarantees from principal owners and, if available, a lien on other sponsor assets. Appraisals must be by a State Certified General Appraiser, deduct going-concern value, give as-is and as-completed values, and consider petroleum hazards [1].

DSCR and break-even

Table: DSCR by year

Coverage is measured after a replacement reserve ($90,000 in Year 1, growing 3%) and with the retention fee in debt service; it rises from 1.37x in Year 3 to 1.62x in Year 10.

Table: Break-even tests (Year 3, DSCR = 1.00x)

The break-evens say where the risk lives. Inside sales could fall 35.7% before coverage reached 1.00x. Diesel gallons could fall 17.4%, and the diesel margin could fall from 31.2 to 25.7 cents in Year 3 terms. A diesel margin cushion of about 5.5 cents is small for a commodity whose retail price moved more than $2 a gallon in a year [3]. A lender should treat diesel margin as the primary risk and ask for the sponsor's fuel supply terms before commitment.

Returns

Table: Returns (10-year hold, pre-tax)

Exit value capitalizes Year 11 cash after reserves at an assumed 9.00%. Gross exit value of $19,195,936 is 1.21 times project cost. The unlevered IRR of 9.4% sits only 1.6 points above the 7.75% loan rate, so debt adds little to returns: the levered IRR is 11.2% and the equity multiple 2.73x. Operating cash does not repay the equity within ten years ($3,507,123 against $4,745,603); the rest comes back only at sale.

Returns this thin could tempt a sponsor to walk away under stress, which argues for strong guarantees and a distribution covenant tied to coverage.

Sensitivity and stress tests

Table: DSCR in Year 3: interest rate vs diesel volume

At base volume coverage stays at or above 1.25x up to 8.75%; at 80% of base volume it is below 1.00x from 7.25%. Volume matters more than rate: 10% of diesel volume moves Year 3 coverage by about 0.21x, while 100 basis points moves it by about 0.11x.

Table: DSCR in Year 3: diesel margin (opening-year cents) vs diesel volume

The margin grid is the stronger warning: 1.02x at 25 cents, below 1.00x at every volume at 20 cents, and 1.72x at 35 cents.

Table: Downside scenarios

A, B and G show a project that cannot carry its debt if the diesel margin falls to 20 cents, if it loses a quarter of its diesel volume, or if milder versions combine. C and E stay between 1.16x and 1.22x. D, the slow ramp, exhausts the reserve: Years 1 to 3 together leave about $1.98 million of shortfall against the $900,000 reserve, so a slow ramp needs a sponsor cash call or a larger reserve. F, the price spike, uses the late-October 2026 Midwest prices of $6.480 for diesel and $4.269 for gasoline [3]: card fees rise with the price of each gallon and volume dips 5%, and coverage falls to 1.10x.

EIA's November 2026 outlook raised its retail diesel forecast to $5.25 a gallon for 2026 and $5.03 for 2027, from $5.19 and $4.49 a month earlier, and assumes global petroleum product markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027 [20]. In August 2026 refining was 40% of the retail diesel price and distribution and marketing 11% [3].

Program compliance

Table: B&I eligibility and requirements checklist

Two items need early attention. The first is environmental review. B&I actions follow 7 CFR part 1970, and the borrower and lender must consider environmental impacts at the earliest planning stages [1]. The categorical exclusion for business development in 7 CFR 1970.54 applies only where site development affects no more than 10 acres and does not cause a substantial increase in traffic [25]. A 16-acre truck stop designed to draw trucks off the interstate fails both tests, so an environmental assessment should be expected and built into the schedule.

The second is the feasibility study: for a loan over $1 million to a new business, one prepared by an independent qualified consultant acceptable to the Agency is required [1], and the lender's credit evaluation must include a written evaluation of it [1].

Risks and mitigants

Table: Risks and mitigants

Model determination

Determination: financeable as structured, with conditions. On these assumptions, the modelled 150-space truck stop can carry a B&I loan of $11,073,072 at 70% of cost, with coverage of 1.37x in Year 3 and 1.44x in Year 5. The county is a B&I rural area, the uses are eligible and the equity exceeds the minimum. Traffic is the strength: about 8,300 trucks a day, a rising truck share near 45%, and state research showing private truck parking along I-80 running at high occupancy.

The weaknesses: the ramp years do not cover debt service, the diesel margin cushion is about 5.5 cents, discounted collateral covers two-thirds of the loan, and three truck stops already operate at the main interchange.

A lender reviewing a file like this would likely set these conditions:

1. Cash equity of at least 30% of cost, shown on the loan closing balance sheet.
2. A funded $900,000 ramp reserve, held by the lender and released after two quarters at 1.25x trailing coverage.
3. A fuel supply agreement, before commitment, with competitive pricing and major fleet card acceptance.
4. Unlimited personal guarantees from principal owners and, where available, additional collateral.
5. A completed environmental review under 7 CFR part 1970 before any construction contract, plus a Phase I environmental site assessment.
6. Zoning, State Fire Marshal tank permits and NDOT access approval for the actual parcel.
7. An Agency-accepted independent feasibility study that replaces this model's fueling-share, penetration and inside-sales assumptions with site evidence, including a current inventory of competing truck spaces and the status of any new site at exit 179.
8. A guaranteed-maximum-price design-build contract with payment and performance bonds.
9. Pollution legal liability insurance meeting the federal financial responsibility minimum of $1 million per occurrence [26], with no reliance on the state reimbursement fund for releases after June 30, 2028 unless the fund is extended [27].
10. A DSCR covenant of 1.20x tested annually from Year 3 and a distribution restriction below 1.35x.

If the feasibility study cannot support at least 6.0 million diesel gallons at a margin near 30 cents, the project should be resized or the equity raised before it goes to the Agency.

Assumptions

Table: Assumptions