The Mandate
A first-time fuel-retail sponsor with prior convenience-retail management experience engaged Feasibility Study Consultant to prepare a third-party feasibility study supporting a SBA 504 financing request for a project located in Ada County, Idaho. Total project capitalization fell within the $3M-$5M band. The capital provider, a SBA Certified Development Company, required documentation consistent with current program review standards. The analytical question put to the team: Did Meridian growth-corridor traffic counts support 1.4M annual fuel gallons and $2.1M inside-sales revenue.
Engagement Scope
- Primary market area defined as a 3-mile drive-time
- Comparable supply set of 8 properties
- Demand model framework: traffic-count fuel-volume capture and inside-sales build
- Financial projection horizon: 10 years
- Site inspection completed; operator interviews where applicable
- Primary data collection through field reconnaissance and third-party market data
Methodology Applied
Primary Market Area
The PMA was defined as a 3-mile drive-time from the subject site, calibrated to the demand catchment behavior typical of gas station assets in Idaho. The boundary captured the population, employment, and competitive supply base relevant to the subject's operating thesis.
Supply and Demand Reconciliation
The comparable supply set comprised 8 properties operating within the PMA or in directly substitutable submarkets. Demand was modeled using a traffic-count fuel-volume capture and inside-sales build approach over a 10 years horizon. The reconciliation tested whether incremental supply, including the subject, could be absorbed within the projection window without compromising stabilized occupancy assumptions.
Capture Rate Calibration
The subject's capture rate was calibrated against the absorption capacity of the PMA. The analysis concluded that PMA absorption capacity exceeded subject build-out by a factor of 2.1 across the projection window, with a stabilized capture rate of 3.6%.
Exhibit 1: Comparable Supply Set, Idaho PMA
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 2: Demand Projection Summary, 10 years Horizon
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 3: Subject Capture Rate vs. PMA Absorption Capacity
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Analytical Conclusions
- Subject corner traffic count recorded 32,400 AADT with high a.m. commuter directional flow.
- Comparable Meridian-corridor stations cleared 1.2M to 1.7M annual fuel gallons.
- Inside-sales penetration of 38% of fuel customers supported the $2.1M projected inside revenue.
- Stabilized 504 DSCR of 1.39x cleared the program review threshold.
Deliverable
The delivered report ran 108 pages with 25 exhibits distributed across nine analytical sections, plus appendices documenting comparable supply data, demographic inputs, and financial projection assumptions. The document was prepared to the documentation standards of the SBA Certified Development Company. The corresponding SBA 504 review framework guided exhibit selection and supporting documentation.