The Mandate
A first-time hospitality sponsor developing on inherited acreage engaged Feasibility Study Consultant to prepare a third-party feasibility study supporting a USDA B&I financing request for a project located in Anderson County, Kentucky. Total project capitalization fell within the $3M-$5M band. The capital provider, a USDA Rural Development field office working with a community bank, required documentation consistent with current program review standards. The analytical question put to the team: Did Lexington-Louisville regional wedding demand support 64 annual paid bookings at $18,400 average package.
Engagement Scope
- Primary market area defined as a 60-mile drive-time
- Comparable supply set of 9 properties
- Demand model framework: regional marriage-license capture and destination-venue absorption
- Financial projection horizon: 10 years
- Site inspection completed; operator interviews where applicable
- Primary data collection through field reconnaissance and third-party market data
Methodology Applied
Primary Market Area
The PMA was defined as a 60-mile drive-time from the subject site, calibrated to the demand catchment behavior typical of wedding venue assets in Kentucky. The boundary captured the population, employment, and competitive supply base relevant to the subject's operating thesis.
Supply and Demand Reconciliation
The comparable supply set comprised 9 properties operating within the PMA or in directly substitutable submarkets. Demand was modeled using a regional marriage-license capture and destination-venue absorption approach over a 10 years horizon. The reconciliation tested whether incremental supply, including the subject, could be absorbed within the projection window without compromising stabilized occupancy assumptions.
Capture Rate Calibration
The subject's capture rate was calibrated against the absorption capacity of the PMA. The analysis concluded that PMA absorption capacity exceeded subject build-out by a factor of 2.8 across the projection window, with a stabilized capture rate of 2.2%.
Exhibit 1: Comparable Supply Set, Kentucky PMA
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 2: Demand Projection Summary, 10 years Horizon
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 3: Subject Capture Rate vs. PMA Absorption Capacity
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Analytical Conclusions
- Lexington-Louisville regional marriage licenses totaled 11,400 annually within the drive-time PMA.
- Comparable destination wedding venues cleared 48 to 78 annual paid bookings at $14,800 to $22,600 packages.
- Bourbon Trail tourism overlay supported a corporate-event secondary revenue stream.
- USDA B&I rural-area and equity threshold tests confirmed.
Deliverable
The delivered report ran 126 pages with 28 exhibits distributed across nine analytical sections, plus appendices documenting comparable supply data, demographic inputs, and financial projection assumptions. The document was prepared to the documentation standards of the USDA Rural Development field office working with a community bank. The corresponding USDA B&I review framework guided exhibit selection and supporting documentation.