The Mandate
A hospitality sponsor entering the outdoor-hospitality segment with prior STR portfolio operating experience engaged Feasibility Study Consultant to prepare a third-party feasibility study supporting a SBA 7(a) financing request for a project located in Blanco County, Texas. Total project capitalization fell within the $3M-$5M band. The capital provider, a specialty SBA lender, required documentation consistent with current program review standards. The analytical question put to the team: Could Hill Country leisure demand sustain a 62% trailing-twelve occupancy assumption across 34 safari tents at the proposed nightly rate.
Engagement Scope
- Primary market area defined as a 60-mile drive-time
- Comparable supply set of 8 properties
- Demand model framework: leisure room-night demand projection with glamping segmentation overlay
- Financial projection horizon: 7 years
- Site inspection completed; operator interviews where applicable
- Primary data collection through field reconnaissance and third-party market data
Methodology Applied
Primary Market Area
The PMA was defined as a 60-mile drive-time from the subject site, calibrated to the demand catchment behavior typical of glamping & outdoor hospitality assets in Texas. The boundary captured the population, employment, and competitive supply base relevant to the subject's operating thesis.
Supply and Demand Reconciliation
The comparable supply set comprised 8 properties operating within the PMA or in directly substitutable submarkets. Demand was modeled using a leisure room-night demand projection with glamping segmentation overlay approach over a 7 years horizon. The reconciliation tested whether incremental supply, including the subject, could be absorbed within the projection window without compromising stabilized occupancy assumptions.
Capture Rate Calibration
The subject's capture rate was calibrated against the absorption capacity of the PMA. The analysis concluded that PMA absorption capacity exceeded subject build-out by a factor of 2.1 across the projection window, with a stabilized capture rate of 3.4%.
Exhibit 1: Comparable Supply Set, Texas PMA
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 2: Demand Projection Summary, 7 years Horizon
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Exhibit 3: Subject Capture Rate vs. PMA Absorption Capacity
[Table or chart rendered in delivered report.]
Analytical Conclusions
- Austin and San Antonio drive-time inflows produced a 286,000 annual leisure room-night demand pool inside the Hill Country PMA.
- Comparable luxury glamping properties cleared $385 to $520 ADR with 68% to 74% peak-season occupancy.
- Subject reached 61% trailing-twelve occupancy by month 18 of the projected absorption curve.
- Stabilized DSCR of 1.36x cleared the lender's 1.25x review threshold.
Deliverable
The delivered report ran 126 pages with 28 exhibits distributed across nine analytical sections, plus appendices documenting comparable supply data, demographic inputs, and financial projection assumptions. The document was prepared to the documentation standards of the specialty SBA lender. The corresponding SBA 7(a) review framework guided exhibit selection and supporting documentation.